Moneyball and Bill James
Also, I finally got around to reading Moneyball and am also reading a biography of sorts about Bill James, The Mind of Bill James, both of which I highly recommend. Aside from all the eye-opening thoughts on how we need to look behind many of the commonly held assumptions of the game, it has been an incredible reminder of how much I love baseball, much because of all the ways we can break it down and analyze it. There is just so much that goes on surrounding every play, situation, player, team, etc. And it is inutterably beautiful.
4 comments:
yay logic and reason!
Moneyball is very interesting. I read it at the height of the A's...well for lack of a better term...empire.
The end had a "What if Beane was the GM of the Red Sox" part, as after the 2002 season, he was...for a day before he backed out. Here's some interesting things I remember:
-The Red Sox would have to give up then unknown Kevin Youkilis for him.
-Manny Rameriz wouldn't be allowed to play left field anymore, as he'd be a DH for the rest of his life. That means no David Ortiz.
-Jason Varitek was the first person Beane was gonna trade, replacing him with some backup White Sox catcher or something...
All in all, I'm really happy he didn't become the GM here. I think he got lucky those few years and don't think he's as great advertised.
It's true, Epstein is somewhat of a "Moneyball" disciple. But the Cardinals and Yankees would have been competing in the2004 World Series if Theo hadn't disregarded the whole "ignore defense" thing.
Interesting that Bill James was the one hired on in 2002, since he is essentially where all those Moneyball/Billy Beane ideas came from.
And you never know what would have happened if Beane had taken over...they may have won four straight instead of these two. Very true that Theo is a Moneyball-ish guy (especially when working with James), but I don't think it is quite accurate to say there was an "ignore defense" mentality. It was more that there were other things that would more than offset what defense adds that could be obtained more cheaply.
There are certainly misunderstandings many have as to what Sabermetrics, etc is all about. Another is that bunting and stealing bases is worthless. They would say that evidence shows it is minimally beneficial, but situations dictate when it makes most sense/gives the best chance.
There is so much that could be discussed.
Good points. I don't think Beane would have traded Nomar for Mientkiewicz (spelling?) Cabrera, two vital members of the '04 team cause they were acquired only for defensive purposes. Plus, no matter how you cut it, Nomar was a much better offensive player than those two, especially in that era. Maybe I have to reread the book, but I thought the A's pretty much didn't care about defense, hence Scott Hatteburg playing first. Also, I doubt he would have traded for Dave Roberts, and even if he did, something tells me that there's no way Roberts would have been allowed to steal 2nd in the ALCS.
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