It's Only The First Week, Right?

Certainly we shouldn't make too much of the first week...or so I keep telling myself. But then I keep seeing the Cardinals' pitchers doing so well, see the 5-1 start...and it is hard not to think, "Well, they could actually do this, they could keep this up." It just feels like their old winning ways. It feels right.

Of course, if I were a Tigers fan (I'm watching the game right now...1-1), Red Sox fan, Phillies fan, etc I would be telling myself it is just a slow start, things will turn around, this is not who we are...and there is good reason to believe those things. It is harder on the other side of things--being pretty sure the team is playing over its head right now (Baltimore or Kansas City anyone?). But those are the kinds of things people said about Detroit and Milwaukee before. "Sure, they're off to a great start, but it won't last." Most of those surprise starts that continued were aided by young guys maturing sooner than expected. I don't see much of that happening with STL, but I'm more than willing to be wrong.

What can we really know or tell at this point, then?
I would say some of our suspicions (whether weaknesses or strengths) can be reinforced...like my question of whether the Cardinals really have enough bats to win over the long haul, knowing that their pitching is not likely to carry them. They have won games by pitching well, not so much with hitting. Ankiel and Molina have been huge so far, but I still don't see much happening with Schumaker, Glaus, Izturis, Kennedy...there are a lot of holes in the lineup. So, if they don't pitch like this all the time...ouch.

And then some of those teams like the Phillies (sorry Shunta) are showing that questions about their pitching, and bullpen especially, may be valid. Not to say that should keep them from competing for or winning their division. They'll be there despite that. Still, maybe just a few weeks into the season, if those questions are still there, it should be enough to prompt a move of some sort.

So, let's see what happens!

wouldn't you love a day off after working for one day?

hahaha... john, your last paragraph cracked me up. it's stupid to boast about your team when they suck.

the phillies had many years of sucking. i would have looked foolish had i boasted about them. i could say, "i loathe the braves." but never... "the braves suck... the phillies are awesome!" that would have sounded really dumb. clearly, a team can't "suck" if they win the division 10+ years in a row with hardly any competition.

this year, however... the phils have a "phighting" chance... as they say. the approximate lineup:

j-roll
victorino
my boyfriend
howard
pat the fat wallet oops bat burrell
pedro the new guy feliz
werth
ruiz
the pitcher

i don't know much about pedro. but hopefully... phillies' fans will have a reason to create a "vote for pedro" shirt of their own. hahaha. i had to do it. sorry.

as for the rest of them... jimmy through ryan howard... an obvious solid heart of the lineup. [which is fitting since chase has clearly stolen mine.] can't wait to see what they'll do this year with victorino playing every day and hitting second. burrell... well, if he keeps up his pace from last year... he might be worth about half of what they're paying him. hopefully he continues to stay out of his multi-year slump. werth and ruiz proved to be of value last year... and i'm glad to see them playing every day.

dobbs, taguchi, and jenkins should be good off of the bench, as well.

the offense looks promising... as should be expected after nl-leading scoring season last year.

the pitching, however, is a different story.

here's my problem. every year... the phils dish out meager cash and pick up these old guys or not good guys to come in and pitch for a year. they just got this new 39-year old guy, rudy, to jump into the bullpen from the dodgers. his era last season was over 6.00.

please tell me how that's supposed to help our bullpen woes??!?

my suggestion: get rid of adam eaton [$$$$], ryan madson, and possibly tom gordon [or at least don't let him close]... and drop some cash for some young talent. citizen's bank park is a hitters' ballpark. they can't keep bringing mediocre pitchers and hope that maybe they'll find their golden stuff. we shouldn't have gotten rid of billy wagner. or curt schilling, for that matter. and we never should have picked up adam eaton or freddie garcia. and quite honestly, i'm not even sure they should have gone with brad lidge. we'll see what happens after he comes off the dl. i'm not convinced that he was a fantastic grab.

the starters obviously have the upper hand on the relievers. myers and hamels should hopefully shine like the stars we're hoping they continue to be. notwithstanding yesterday's outing by myers. moyers and kendrick both did well last year. moyers' record doesn't necessarily show it... but he did pitch pretty well. i had him on my fantasy team last year so followed him pretty closely. a lot of his losses came in close games with very low scores. had the offense played "normally," they would have easily bailed him out. as for eaton... well, we all know how i feel about him. he'd better get his act together... cuz he's in the dog house after last year's horrendous performance.

overall, i'm looking forward to a good season. i think it'll be rough/fun... with the mets in their prime and the braves coming back from the dead. i don't think the marlins or the nats are much to worry about... though the nats have a pretty new stadium. : )

to summarize: the phillies have a great offense. a half-stellar group of starters. and a bullpen that makes me put my head in my hands.

spend money on pitchers.

money cash... money cash hoes!!

and go phillies!! : )

Nonsensical Ramblings about 2008 and beyond

So, this outlook comes 2 games into the season, right before game three. I didn't watch the first two since they were on at God-awful times, and I might not watch the third tonight since the Massachusetts Minutemen are in the Final Four against Florida tonight. Don't let the liberal/conservative media fool you. The Final Four is UMass, Florida, OSU and Ole Miss.

Anyway, I when I started this post, I didn't feel very confident about this season, which is weird as pretty much everyone's returning from a World Championship team. Then I began writing and I realized how good this team can be. Granted, two of the top three in the rotation are on the DL now, though Beckett is eligible to come off Thursday. Schilling's on the 60 day DL, and besides, he's really old. I don't know how much he has left in the tank.

At first glance, age appears to be a huge factor with this team. Wakefield, Schilling and Timlin are all 42ish. Varitek did rebound from a horrible 2006, but he's gonna be 36 in a week and a half. How long do catchers hold up? Even the heart of the order, Manny and Ortiz, are perhaps starting to show signs of decline. Rameriz will be 36 next month and had a huge decline last year. Compare his 2006 and 2007 numbers. 15 more home runs, 14 more RBI, a 30 point batting average drop and a 50 point OBP drop. Plus, he played more games in 2007, so the power numbers bug me. Ortiz on the other hand had his worst power year as a Red Sox since 2003, hitting 19 less homers and driving in 20 less runs then last year. The only thing is, in 2003, he played in limited time sharing with Hillenbrand, Millar, and Mueller. I'm not as worried about Ortiz, as he did have a career high batting average last year. The other area of concern with age is the throw in, Mike Lowell. He had an unexpectanted great year . I'm just hoping now that he's been paid, he'll still show up. I believe he will. He doesn't seem like that much of a jerk to just cash it in, but what do I know?

Throw J.D. Drew into the areas of concern list. He's not that old, he just really sucked last year. He gets a pass only because he hit a grand slam in game 7 of the ALCS. But he has to contribute something, anything during this regular season.

The nice thing is, the Red Sox are acknowledging their age problem and have begun phasing in the next generation. Everyone knows about Papelbon, but the pitching staff also includes Manny Delcarmen in the bullpen and Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester in the rotation. Concerning the everyday nine, last years rookie of the year Dustin Pedroia is returning as is October hero Jacoby Ellsbury. It would have been nice to have traded for Santana, but being set for the future is a good consilation prize.

The Red Sox will win the division this year. No one else scares me. The other day, I was wearing my Red Sox jacket on the T, and someone in Cardinal gear started yelling at me "Forget Red Sox Nation. It's all about Cardinal Nation. The Red Sox are a joke." I politely pointed out the Cardinals didn't even finish above .500 last year, and though they won the World Series the year before, they, in fact were the joke and shouldn't have qualified for the playoffs seeing as how the Phillies (not to mention the Blue Jays, the Red Sox, the White Sox, and the Angels) had a better record but due to the foolishness that is the division rule, the Cardinals somehow qualified. He kept yelling about how great the Cardinals were. Eventually, someone approached me and said "Hey man, don't look to me for help. I'm a Yankees fan." I responded "How's the millenium been? I don't even know why you bothered single yourself out like that. The Yankees are irrelevenant." It was beautiful because it's true.

DOA

This is the year we tie the Phillies record. 16 straight seasons.

There is honestly 99% no hope for a turn of events.

The Pirates minor-league system is bankrupt, and the major-league team is below average in talent.

Should be fun watching Ian Snell and Gorzo pitch... Hopefully Bay returns to form so we can trade him for some real prospects. Maybe LaRoche as well. Jack Wilson should be traded now while his stock is as high as it's going to get.

We'll get about 70 wins, even in the pathetic NL Central. The owners will continue to subtly full the fans into thinking it's MLB's fault for not having a salary cap, while Nutting rakes in one of the largest profits in MLB, thanks mostly to revenue sharing and Steinbrenner.

Small market winning can be done, but only by smart people. Not a good reality for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Here's to the 2008 season!

(Yes, I will continue to post all season with regularity.) :)

Wanting to Hope

I can almost smell the freshcut grass, spilled beer, and steaming hotdogs....it's here! Baseball is back! The first day of Spring may have been a week ago (weather not withstanding) but for me the first real day of Spring is Opening Day. Not this Opening Day in Japan stuff, but real Opening Day. That is when we get games every day. And as Thomas Boswell says in Ken Burns' Baseball, "You may not watch it every day, but it is there when you need it." or something like that. What a beautiful thing.

What may not be beautiful is the Cardinals' season. I feel weird about the season. It has been a long time since I came into the season not really feeling that we have a good shot at winning the division, let alone contend. But I am struggling with that this year. Joe may be saying, "Welcome to my world." True enough. But I am also still wanting to hold out hope for the season because as they say, you never know.

IF the starting pitching can hold together--and that is a HUGE IF--we will have a shot to contend. The bullpen is pretty good and the lineup should be better with Glaus instead of Rolen and more experience for Duncan and Ankiel, but I don't know...the more I look at the team..a LOT has to go better than expected. The defense is not great...I know Edmonds wasn't the same guy, but still far better than most. And Rolen was always phenomenal. Offensively, outside of Albert there is still no reliable bat in the lineup. They should be decent, but not that good.

This is likely our lineup:

RF Skip Schumaker
2B Adam Kennedy
1B Albert Pujols
3B Troy Glaus
LF Chris Duncan
CF Rick Ankiel
C Yadier Molina
SS Cesar Izturis

That's a guess at the order, but whatever the case I'm guessing no one is intimidated, despite good spring training for some of these guys.

The rotation is the real question mark, though. Just as scary as last year:

Adam Wainwright--excellent first year as a starter, probably the only dependable one
Braden Looper--adequate as a first year starter last year himself, but not exciting
Todd Wellemeyer--also first starts last year (noticing a pattern)
Brad Thompson--after 3 seasons he still looks 15...not that's bad =)
Kyle Lohse--I like this pickup a lot, but he's still not the answer

Again, IF the pitching holds up ok, AND Mulder and Clement come back soon pitching well, there is a shot at contending. But I hate to say it...it would almost take a miracle for the Cubs NOT to win the division. Ugh.

Guys, I will try to hold out hope. Show me you can do it.

just for the record...

... It's 6:50 am and I've been watching live baseball from Japan for the last 45 minutes. It's so beautiful and wonderful I'm not sure I can describe the joy accompanying my early morning activity. [Can you really call this an activity? I'm just sitting on the couch....] The score is 2-0, A's in the top of the 6th. Two on... no outs... Ortiz is up. Out! Pop-up. Base hit by Manny! Two runs score. 2-2.

Somehow, I need to pull myself away so I can get ready for work.

It's back, my friends.... the glory of baseball is back. : )

Looking forward to writing soon about my beloved Phils...

Opening Day Eve

Or Rather...opening day itself as the Boston Red Sox are in Japan to take on the Oakland A's. Diasuke Matsuzaka vs Joe Blanton. I'm not sure how I feel about opening the season in Japan, especially since the team comes back to the US and reopens spring training after two regular season games. How weird. Anyway, I expect Diasuke to have a big day in front of his home town fans.

For the second time in my life, the Boston Red Sox are the defending World Champions. The starting nine from last year is returning 100 %. The main difference is Jacoby Ellsbury will be up for the entire season. Ellsbury made a name for himself in September while Manny was taking a break and later in October. Crisp struggled like there was no tomorrow in the playoffs, and Ellsbury was inserted into the lineup and was almost the World Series MVP. Most speculate Coco Crisp will be traded, and he's been very vocal about not wanting to rot on the bench. The other noteworthy transaction was Doug Mirabelli, Tim Wakefield's personal catcher, was cut in favor of Kevin Cash who stepped in and did awesome last year when Doug was hurt. The Red Sox tried this once before, and ended up trading away Josh Bard and Clay Meridith to get Mirabelli back (who was hitting .172 or something...in the National League...). I hope they stick to their guns this time. Dougie can't hit the ball at all anymore.

The starting rotation is, in my opinion, better than 2007. The one difference is Jon Lester is in the rotation instead of Julian "Automatic Win Day" Tavarez. I expect Beckett to build on the magnificiant October he had. I'm predicting he'll win the Cy Young this year. Schilling's hurt right now, but the Sox have two viable options to fill in for him. The young Clay Bucholtz, who you may recall no-hit the Orioles last year before being shut down with a tired arm, and the veteran Bartolo Colon. I think it might be Bucholtz to start the year, but I wouldn't be surprised if Colon didn't play a big part of the year. The Sox got him dirt cheap. I'm hoping he plays the role David Wells did here from 2005-2006 or Brett Saberhagen did in 1999. I'm actually pretty excited about Colon, and am predicting he'll win 10 games. We'll see if that's true.

Anyway, I'll make some 2008 predictions, but not now. I'd rather wait for the lull between opening day Japan and opening day USA.

Hall of Fame Voting

Jim Rice should be in the Hall of Fame. This will be his 14th year or something on the ballet, and I don't understand why it's taking so long. The man dominated baseball. According to MLB.com, from 1978-1986 (9 seasons!), he lead all American Leaguers in games played, at bats, runs, hits, homers, RBI, slugging percentage, total bases, extra-base hits, go-ahead RBIs, multi-hit games and outfield assists. It is clear to me that the previous sentence proves my point, so I'm gonna shut up now and wait for him to be voted in.

Farewell, Jimmy

It is a strange thing how I feel about Jim Edmonds being traded. For most of the last couple years I can only say that I had little confidence in Jim at the plate, usually forseeing a strikeout on a pitch up around his helmet. I was surprised when they signed him to a two year $19M contract last year since he had done so poorly and been so hurt the year before...and he didn't seem to have much left in the tank. Probably from running into so many walls and throwing himself all over centerfield so long. (My roommate--loser Cub fan--seems to think all Jim does is catch the ball and fall down...cynic...he just doesn't know baseball).

So, after half wishing they hadn't resigned him and thrown money at a player so obviously not going to live up to it and groaning when he would come to the plate in clutch situations...well, I am sad that he is gone. I was a little surprised, to tell you the truth. Not just because another team would want to trade for him (and I hope he plays well for the Pads...what about Cameron, though?). Jim just seemed like one of those guys the Cardinals would hold onto because he was a real Cardinal and would retire a Cardinal. He has certainly been a fan favorite for years and it won't be the same without him in center. I won't miss his swing-and-miss approach to hitting these last few years, but he was amazing out in the field and still gave me confidence that that part of the diamond was covered. I guess this is what happens when a team gets old and needs to start looking to the future.

Farewell, Jimmy. You will be missed. (and not just by my friend Brian, who likes to pretend you are his biological father)

what a sad, sad day

i can't believe the phillies didn't give aaron rowand what he wanted. he was looking for a long-term deal where he could settle down for awhile. and the phils weren't willing to give it to him, so he moved on.

i think they may have been scared of another pat burrell incident.

burrell was a beast a few years ago... and they gave him a huge contract to keep him in philly. problem was, he started sucking. for three years he became an albatross that the phillies had no choice but to carry, since no other team wanted to pick up a mediocre, over-payed player. it was helpful for the bat of... well, "pat the bat" to pick up again the second half of this past season.

back to rowand. here's a guy who thrives in philadelphia b/c he's a philly-type of guy. he appeals to the blue-collar, gritty south philly crowd b/c he's a gritty-run-into-the-wall-and-break-your-nose kinda guy. that's who we want in philly.

sadly, before rowand, we hadn't had a guy like him since my favorite baseball player of all time, lenny dykstra. coincidentally, also a centerfielder who was covered in dirt after every game. or was it his tobacco juice? ehh... i think it was both.

let's talk about the philadelphia management for a moment. their out loud excuse is that they don't want to pay the money to keep rowand there long-term when they need to spend the money on good pitching.

problem #1: they don't get good pitchers. they get average guys who they say "have a lot of potential." so they don't keep rowand [who, for argument's sake was perhaps a little bit greedy and would have been better off playing three years in a contending city than spending five in san fran, who for all intents and purposes sucks] to save money... and do what with it? THEY SURE DON'T GO AFTER HIGH QUALITY PITCHERS! they're looking at average guys and are willing to give them a shot.

problem #2: there is no shot available to average guys at citizen's bank park. it's a hitter's ball park... and the only way for a pitcher to truly be successful there is to be GREAT... not average.
countless pitchers over the last few years [garcia, eaton, lidle, leiber, etc.] who came in with high hopes sucked.

solution: when your pitching sucks, and there's no hope for having a solid pitching order b/c you're playing most of your games at cbp, it would make the most sense to bulk up your offensive line-up as much as humanly possible and spend the money to bring in ridiculously good pitchers.

this means, keeping your gold-glove, all-star, .300-hitting center fielder.

it means keeping michael bourn, potentially the fastest man in baseball right now.

it means getting rid of two of your four mid-career 3rd basemen to build up some cash or three of your four if you're gonna go after a great corner guy.

it means getting rid of the sucky catcher you paid big bucks for last off season who didn't end up starting after all to find a great 3rd baseman or better yet, some high-quality, sustainable pitching. [which... in looking at their roster, they seemed to have done.]

it means not letting GREAT players leave... like curt schilling all those years ago... who they thought was probably done [though i'll never know why]... but ended up being a hero on what... three world series teams?

the management in philadelphia is insufferable.

so, now they're on a hunt for another outfielder [since they gave up both rowand AND bourn]. they still don't have a great third baseman AND they let iguchi run off with another team, who could have filled that spot.

and alas... they still don't have too much hope beyond cole hamels from the pitcher's mound. we'll see what happens with lidge in the mix... and whatever other scoundrel they pick up.

the philadelphia phillies just dropped down a notch.

you're going backwards, boys... you're supposed to be making your team BETTER... not worse by giving away your great players...

A pleading

Dear Phillies,

Please, please, please, please, please, please, please, PLEASE... don't let Aaron Rowand go.

Thank you.

Respectfully submitted,

Mrs. Utley??????

Free Agents Part 1

Reports are that the Red Sox are close to signing Schilling. I heard 10 million for 1 year, which means if he pitches as well as he did this year, he will earn more than 1 million dollars a win. Not too shabby for him.

It doesn't bother me though. The Red Sox can afford it. If you believe otherwise they've fooled you.

The great debate is Mike Lowell vs. A-Rod. I say try to get them both. Imagine A-Rod and his 55+ homers replacing Lugo and his, well, 55+ hits. Again, if you don't believe the Red Sox can afford it, they've fooled you. They're a lot richer than they let the fan base think.

The other argument is everyone here hates A-Rod. True. But, those of us who were around back in the late 90s (when you could show up the day of the game and buy a ticket...when Fenway had less seats...and the tickets were half the price they are now...) remember that the most hated player in Boston was Manny Rameriz. Funny how things change.

Ellsberry
Youkilis
Ortiz
Rameriz
Rodriguez
Lowell
Pedroia
Varitek
Drew

That's a lineup.