Bucco Stats this year

Yesterday or so I predicted the Pirates will go 77-85. Here's why:

(These first eight players are the expected regular starters in projected batting order.)

CF Chris Duffy: Duffy is a good center fielder but I don't think he will be a consistent leadoff hitter in the near future. This is our biggest weakness as a hitting club. Eventually, we'll try someone else at the leadoff spot, without much success. 7 HR, .260 average. His speed is all that allows him to get even that high an average.

SS Jack Wilson: Jack will rebound defensively to deserve the Gold Glove (of course he won't actually get it). He will surprise some with his relative competance at the plate. 8 HR, .280.

2B Freddy Sanchez: Sanchez will start slow coming back from the DL, but will pick it up and will do OK, although of course he won't get near that .344 he got last season. He will be a great 2nd basemen (he's moving over from third because Jose Castillo is lazy). 12 HR, .310.

1B Adam LaRoche: Alright, this is the tricky one. The new guy will continue to improve on his numbers as he has every year. The ballpark is on his side. .290, 40 HR.

LF Jason Bay: Steady, dependable. .280, 38 HR.

C Ronny Paulino: I really like this young catcher. I don't know if he's any good, but I like the guy. .295, 13 HR.

RF Xavier Nady: This guy improved when he came to Pittsburgh last year. (How often does THAT happen?) We actually got the much better end of this deal when we gave the Mets Oliver Perez. .290, 16 HR.

3B Jose Bautista: Earned his job in Spring Training. He'll split a lot of time with Castillo. 15 HR, .240.

Starting pitchers (I will not predict wins, as it is pretty much all luck for a Pirates player to get a win, considering our bad run scoring):

Zach Duke: Will be solid and steady. 3.25 ERA.
Ian Snell: Breakout star. 2.75 ERA.
Paul Maholm: Will hit some rough spots. 4.75 ERA.
Tom Gorzelanny: Eeeeh. Will have some good starts, but will not be a competant major league starter. He'll be replaced at some point. 6.00 ERA.
Tony Armas: Whatever. 4.75 ERA.

Bullpen will be fine. Torres will be a good closer. I like Torres.

McCutchen will be in the Major League by the end of the year.

Once again, 77-85 is the prediction. Although I'd love to see us do better. Really, with these stats, and decent help off the bench, we could reach 81 wins for the first time since 1992. But that would mean that everyone outside of Chris Duffy and a couple pitchers would have to have at least a good season, and LaRoche would need a career season (although I'm fully expecting this anyway).

All the pitchers are gonna get roughed up once and a while. They are very young.

But we'll still finish ahead of the Cubs.

2007: The Sneak Preview

I'll give my world series winner, but first I wanna break down the most relevant sports team on the face of the earth, the Boston Red Sox.

A recap of last year: Last time I saw Shunta (how are you by the way?), all was right with the world. The Boston Red Sox were in first place in the American League East. However, they fell apart big time right after I left Chicago. They lost three in a row to the Royals, then to the Devil Rays, then they took 1 of 3 from the Tigers at Fenway...I was at the game they won. David Wells pitched. He was shortly traded because he didn't get the whole "losing" memo. Then they lost five in a row to the Yankees. Manny shut it down and Schilling shut it down and Papelbon shut it down. The one bright spot was Julian Tavarez, who in September started five games and went 3-0 with a 3.60 ERA which included a complete game 1 run victory over the Second Place Toronto Blue Jays. David Ortiz set a Red Sox record for most homeruns in a single season with 54. The Sox finished in third place for the first time since I can remember...93ish? They finished below the Blue Jays for the first time since the last place 1996 year when Roger Clemens was the still the ace. It was a very disappointing year which snapped their three year postseason streak even though they won three more games in the regular season than the eventual World Series Champs.

This year: The rotation is a big question mark this year, aside from the fifth starter Julian Tavarez. It's pretty clear to me the only reason he's not the ace is because 5 is his lucky number. Schilling is getting old, plus he mortgaged his body in 2004- not that I'm complaining. It was definitely worth it. In his last ten starts, Beckett's ERA was in the 11's. Diasuke Matsuzaka has never pitched against major league hitters except for this spring training and last year's pre-spring training World Baseball Classic, so he's a question mark too. Tim Wakefield's knuckleball either dances or doesn't, and on any given night is equally likely to give you 8 shut out innings or else let up five runs without recording an out, though I think it's safe to jot him down for 6 innings of 3-4 run ball. Tavarez is the man, but he'll probably only be in the rotation until Jon Lestor is ready to go. Lestor likes adding gasoline to the fire. I was at one game at US Cellular Field with Jon Scholl who should really post on this blog. Anyway, at that game Lestor walked the bases loaded every inning, then somehow buckled down and got out of it. I think he pitched 6 innings, letting up two runs and stranded 15 runners or something. It was pretty awesome.

The other big question mark is at catcher. Jason Varitek hit 230 last year. That's normally what Mirabelli hits. But Mirabelli followed the captain into the ground and also hit 40 points below his career average. I know defensively they're as good as it gets, but I mean, 230 is what a utility player hit...before the steroid era.

Red Sox prediction: 94-68, taking the division for the first time since 1995.
Pirates prediction: 68-94.

Other Predictions:
Division Winners:
-AL East: Boston Red Sox
-AL Central: Detriot Tigers
-AL West: Oakland A's
-NL East: New York Mets
-NL Central: Chicago Cubs (who finish below .500 but still win baseball's worst division)
-NL West: Los Angelous Dodgers
-AL Wild Card: Minnesota Twins (Santana pitches a nohitter in a one game tie breaker with the Yankees)
-NL Wild Card: San Diego Padres

All Star Game:
American League 7, National League 4
WP- Jeff Weaver, Seattle Mariners
LP- Ben Sheets, Milwaulkie Brewers
S- Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Sox
MVP- John Buck, C, Kansas City Royals- hits 3 run blast off Shawn Chacon of the Pittsburgh Pirates in the seventh inning which evens the score at 4.

Divisional Series:
Boston defeats Detriot 3-0
Minnesota defeats Oakland 3-2
New York Mets defeat San Diego 3-2
Los Angelous defeats Chicago Cubs 3-0

Championship Series:
Boston defeats Minnesota 4-2
Los Angelous deats New York 4-3

World Series:
2007 Red Sox defeat 2003 Red Sox 4-2, though Grady Little out manages Tito Francona and Nomar Garciaparra is named World Series MVP, going 5-13 with 3 home runs, 14 runs batted in and 4 stolen bases in the losing cause.

Other Predictions
-Roger Clemens stays retired.
-Barry Bonds breaks Hank Aaron's record.
-Cubs trade Mark Prior to the Dodgers and in game three of the NLDS matchup, Prior throws a two hit complete game shut out at Wriggly to clinch the series.
-Everything predicted in this post will be wrong, including this line.