Cheering for Bay

The Rays are one of the best baseball stories I've ever seen; it's very exciting that they're winning, especially for a small-market fan like me.

However, I am cheering very hard for the Red Sox. The reason is not just because I said I would, but because I have found myself really, REALLY wanting Jason Bay to win a world series. No other outcome would make me happier.

I think I underestimated how much I like Jason Bay, because I have been cheering for him and his team like crazy since the trade.

As for Manny? In my opinion, apart from the personalities, it was a good baseball trade for Boston. Bay has played about the same for Boston (.293/.370/.527) as Manny played for them this year (.299/.398/.529). There is no evidence that Manny's outrageous numbers in L.A. were going to show up in Boston, especially with the problems he was causing, whether they were planned by himself or Boras.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox gave up two very ordinary prospects and got a guy who's under a super cheap contract for next year and who could be re-signed and playing at his current level for 4-6 more years. Manny would be gone at the end of this year.

Besides all that, I like Bay because he's a smart guy who knows the game. He approaches the game in a way that will give him the maximum possible success.

Go Sox!

It's easy cheering for the Red Sox

As a Jason Bay / new Red Sox fan, I am discovering just how easy and fun it is to like this team.

Mainly, there is this: The team is good. This therefore motivates me to actually seek the results of every game, and even more amazing, to find out how the Rays and Yankees are doing as well!

I like it.

Another thing is that their fans are intelligent. I've enjoyed becoming acquainted with the smart blogs Over The Monster and Joy of Sox.

Finally, I didn't realize how much of a fan I am of Bay personally until I saw him succeeding in games that mattered. My heart skips a beat whenever he's at the plate now and when he has a nice play or a good hit I get so excited!! Because what he does actually affects the fortunes of a team now. I have a feeling he's going to be better than ever with the Sox.

Standing Ovation

Another title I considered for this post:

"Go Red Sox," because as I've said, I will cheer for Jason Bay's new team until the Pirates are good again. I will still be a Pirates fan, of course, but you can expect me to follow the Red Sox closely come playoff time, especially when Bay's at the plate.

But ultimately when I think about the trade deadline, I am blown away by the Pirates' rookie GM Neal Huntington.

Huntington was hired with no prospects and a pathetic major league roster. Many fans clamored this offseason for him to trade away Bay, Jack Wilson, Nady, Marte, and others right away. He resisted.

As it turned out, every one of those guys improved on last year's performances, especially Nady and Bay, who churned out All-Star-caliber years.

Another player improved, our center fielder Nate McLouth. The result was that we had a pretty darn good offense this season. Our pitching was terrible though, worst in the league. Conventional wisdom says to hang on for dear life to those hitters and try desperately to improve pitching through trades and offseason signings.

That is perhaps what former GM Dave Littlefield would have done, desperate for the team to look at least average, mortgaging the future for the illusion of competing.

But Huntington made the right choice. He knows that to truly compete, the Pirates need a stronger minor league system and not just talent at the major league level, but talent with depth. After making no significant moves in the offseason, Huntington had what appears to be a decent draft, although there are still many good players from the draft who haven't signed.

At the deadline, all eyes were now on the former Indians Assistant GM to make his move. And he performed a magic trick.

Over the weekend, he sent Xavier Nady (an impending free agent) and Damasco Marte to the Bronx in return for one top-shelf-potential-but-very-young OF prospect and three very ordinary, average pitching prospects. (Of course, they instantly became the Pirates' 2nd, 3rd, and 4th best pitching prospects.)

Some praised the return Huntington got for a LOOGY and a mediocre OF having a career year who would leave in a couple months. Others complained that it wasn't enough. Perhaps it's not an easy call.

As it turned out, though, Neal had mysterious ways, and ulterior motives in making a New York trade five days before the deadline.

Still spouting lies that the Pirates had no serious intentions of trading Jason Bay, Huntington began talks with two teams who suddenly had incentive to improve: the Yankees division rivals Tampa Bay and Boston. Tampa Bay, whose system is so rich with prospects that they don't know what to do with them, seemed unwilling to budge on a few players the Pirates were demanding. Meanwhile, Boston, who needed to rid themselves of Ramierez, searched desperately for the right team to send him to so that they could replace him with Bay.

At this point, TB and Boston had incentive not just to one-up the Yankees but to avoid having the other team improve. Not only was Huntington selling Bay at his highest value, but he was in a self-created perfect situation for negotiating with the upper hand.

As a result, Huntington was able to reject offers all week right up until the last second, ultimately taking 3B Andy LaRoche, SP Brandon Morris, RP Craig Hansen, and OF Brandon Moss. From what I've read in the past 24 hours, LaRoche is a gem, a major-league ready player who should eventually be a star. Morris has star potential and is only 21. Hansen and Moss have less potential but can step right in and be certain contributors for years here.

This deal was more fruitful than any of the rumored deals we "had together" with Florida or Tampa Bay. Huntington took players at their peak value, traded them to a team who had incentive to trade that was created by Huntington, and picked up great prospects who are being undervalued by the Dodgers, along with solid contributors fromo Boston.

Bravo, Neal. For two impending free agents and Jason Bay, you got 3 guys who SHOULD be future All-Stars and 5 other guys who should be contributors on the Pirates' eventual turnaround team in a couple years.

Until then, GO RED SOX!!

Manny-Bay-Prospects... Does it make sense?

I woke up this morning to see if I was dreaming about the likely three-way trade involving Jason Bay and Manny. Here's why it makes sense for everyone involved:

1. Boston gets to send Manny to the NL while getting a player in return who is nearly as productive this year but is not disruptive. Bay still has a year before free agency as well, and could therefore become part of the Red Sox' longterm plans. And the most important part for for Boston: Tampa Bay does not get Jason Bay. Boston also gets reliever John Grabow. It costs them Manny for the playoff run, cash, and a couple strong prospects.

2. Florida gets a productive outfielder, Manny, free for a playoff run (from what I hear Boston will pay Florida the rest of Manny's salary). They give up a couple strong prospects.

3. Pittsburgh gets much needed high-level talent for their farm system, something like four players. They give up Jason Bay.

At first I was skeptical that Boston would trade Manny at this point in the year but considering age, won't Bay be at least as good as Manny for the next few years? And they can more easily keep him around.

Meanwhile, we know Florida is a weird team and probably just wants to go on a strong run this year before selling their team off or something. They do not have to pay the full cost for Bay to the Pirates so it is not a big loss for them.

The Pirates will presumably get great return on Jason Bay, because the Rays and the Red Sox now have to work against each other, both having a desire not only for Bay but also for the other team to not have Bay.

Rumors are that either the Pirates want slightly better prospects or the Marlins want Boston to send a prospect their way. I'm sure I'll be addicted to checking back all day to see what happens.

The greatest part is that the Pirates don't NEED to trade Bay. If we're not happy about the deal, just hang onto him and trade him in the off-season or next year at this time. With a year of arbitration left, the guy is like gold. We should get a couple elite prospects and a couple 2nd or 3rd tier prospects for him.

Finally, with Tampa Bay and Boston both in the running for Bay, the Nady/Marte-to-Yankees trade looks better and better, as it turned up the heat on these two teams to improve their situation.

Trade deadline!!

As I've said before, this is an exciting season for Pirate fans, as we have a new front office that sometimes shows shades of competence. This is a huge improvement from the last seven or so years.

The Pirates have a decent offense this year and the worst pitching anyone's ever seen. Our minor league system is practically bankrupt.

A couple days ago we traded RF Xavier Nady and RP Damasco Marte to the Yankees for four prospects. Three were pitchers of various pedigrees, although none are top-shelf talent. The last guy, whose name is Tabata, is a 19-year-old OF with potential to be a star, although he's had a rough year in the minors so far.

Despite what some media members have said, it's a great deal for the Pirates, because Xavier Nady is mediocre and is simply having a career year. He's just as likely to fall flat on his face in New York as to continue his good year there. Marte is a relief pitcher and was going to be gone at the end of the season anyway. Nice job (general manager) Huntington!

Some have complained that we helped the Yankees. I could care less if it's the Yankees or anyone else. In fact, I'll be cheering a bit for the Yankees because Nady and Marte are both really great guys who liked Pittsburgh a lot.

As I have stated more than once, if Jason Bay is traded, I will cheer for his new team until the Pirates are good again. That promise is still on, and while there is a good chance Bay will not be traded in the next 24 hours, there is still a chance.

In fact, the Tampa Bay Rays are looking more and more like his new team. The Cardinals are in the mix too, but they don't have as much to offer. I would be excited to cheer for the Rays, although it'll make me look like a bandwagon jumper. Oh well.

Getting excited for the Bucco Trade Deadline

Stunningly, the Pittsburgh Pirates have the best outfield in Major League Baseball.

Nate McLouth is by far the most productive CF in the NL (.315/.399/.606). Jason Bay is arguably the second most productive LF (.294/.416/.550) after Pat Burell. Finally, Xavier Nady is probably the NL's second most productive RF (.317/.379/.525) after Ludwick. Overall, Pittsburgh OF are 2nd, 7th and 12th in OPS for all major league outfielders. No other team comes close to that kind of combined production. Heck, the Yankees and Red Sox don't even have outfielders higher than 15th (Matsui) and 19th (Ramierez).

Our bullpen is above average, too. Although they're 18th in MLB in ERA, they're 3rd in IP and we have a few extremely dependable guys (Grabow, Capps, Marte, Osoria).

So why do we suck so bad?

One reason is we have a terrible, terrible infield. Doumit, our best catcher, is injured. Jack Wilson just returned from injury yesterday. We have no third baseman. LaRoche, at first, is a joke at the plate.

The more morbid reason, though, is our starting pitching. Despite average relief ERA, the Pirates are dead last in team ERA. That's because our starting pitching ERA is 5.66, .33 runs worse than the Rockies, who are TWENTY-NINTH.

Think about that. That means that over the course of one season, if there were no relief pitchers, Pirates starting pitchers would allow 54 more runs than the NEXT CLOSEST TEAM. Compared to the Indians, who have the lowest SP ERA in MLB, the Pirates would allow over FOUR HUNDRED more runs.

That's HISTORICALLY bad.

What does this mean? Because of our bankrupt farm system, it means there's no hope for the Pirates the next couple years to not tie the Phillie's 16-season losing streak this year or to break the record next year (remember, that's for all major NA sports, not just baseball).

But, for obsessed Bucco fans it means we get to enjoy the first major trades by the new management, who so far seem to be more competent than the former management. Jason Bay and Xavier Nady will both be traded and their stocks are high, so that's very exciting. We should be able to get some top prospects and the Pirates will be looking good in 2011! I'm interested to see who we get.

If you remember, last season around this time I declared that I would cheer for whomever the Pirates trade Jason Bay to until they get better (see this post). Although I won't stop cheering for the Buccos, I still hold that I will become a fan of Jason Bay's new team, even if it's the *gulp* Cubs.

Also, I reserve the right to reject this promise if it's the Indians, because no one would wish that kind of heartbreak, misery, and insanity on anyone.

Do any of you guys' teams in playoff contention need a good corner outfielder???

a real outfield?

The Pirates have a lot of problems, but here are some positives:

Our new GM probably knows what he's doing, and the coaching staff is a big improvement too. Unfortunately, this sudden competence won't produce results for 3-4 more years.

Our pitching couldn't possibly be this bad all year (last in the NL in runs allowed).

We actually have a good outfield! Jason Bay has returned to form. Nate McLouth is suddenly the man, Nady is playing well. Our catcher, too, Doumit, is hitting well. Our infield is sad, but the outfield is actually above average.

For as bad as we've been this year, we're standing at 18-20 (after just breaking a 6-game win streak). Perhaps sometime soon we'll be back at .500. That would be exciting.