My adventure in Pittsburgh, and the state of the Pirates

This Friday I went to see the Cubs play the Pirates at PNC Park. With me (and my brother-in-law and traitor sister, both Cubs fans) and my dad and our friend Josh went my uncle Jim. He loves dressing up like a Pirate. So he dressed like one for the game. Everybody seemed to love it, and this picture features just two of the many people who wanted their picture taken with him.

The Pirates won that night, and they won Sunday, too. Going into the All-Star break, they are eight games under .500, 9 games behind the Brewers (better than the Yankees!) and have won their last four series.

In order to handicap our chances to reach .500 and contend for the division title, let's take a look at the pluses and minuses of the season so far:

NEGATIVES:

• Adam LaRoche we a complete bust, hitting under .200 for about two months.
  
• Jason Bay hit a huge slump in June.
  
• Zach Duke has been terrible and is now injured.
  
• We cannot find a fifth starter.
  
• We have not had a real leadoff hitter since Kendell left. Several have failed to impress so far this season.
  
• No one on our team is likely to hit 30 home runs.
  
• Jack Wilson has proven once and for all that he is a defensive specialist.
  
• Two of our top three relievers are injured, leaving our bullpen in shambles.
  
• Our front office took a marginal reliever with the fourth pick in the draft because they don't want to spend money to get the best talent at that spot (kinda defeats the purpose of draft order, don't you think?)
  
• No one on the team has any clue how to draw a walk besides LaRoche.
  
• Our fundamentals, including baserunning and defense, are among the worst in the league.
  
• Our bench is putrid

POSITIVES:

• Ian Snell is a top-flight #1 starter who never gets injured.
  
• Tom Gorzelanny is also a top-flight #1 starter.
  
• Paul Maholm, after a rough start, has been just GREAT the past 5 weeks, including Friday when we saw him school the Brewers.
  
• Although he only has two starts Shane Youman has looked like a good #4 man, and has picked up two wins.
  
• Xavier Nady has been a big surprise, bringing a lot of offense to the table.
  
• LaRoche is starting to come around and is our best hitter right now.
  
• Freddy Sanchez' batting title was not an accident last year. He's still not-too-bad.
  
• Ryan Doumit could end up being a solid every day Major League hitter with some power.

So there you have it. A few positives among many negatives. That's what will earn you a 40-48 record. Luckily, those positives have been coming in more recently, so we could end up having a better second half.

And it is true that last year at the all-star break we were 30-60.

At this point, every ten games, we probably have starting pitchers that will give us a chance to win 7 of those days. We need our offense to keep improving so that we can win 5 of those games. Then, if we can win one of those remaining three games on a fluke, we MIGHT have a chance to climb back up to 81-81, that magic number.

More likely, we'll end up around 77 wins, which is exactly what I predicted.

Bucco Stats this year

Yesterday or so I predicted the Pirates will go 77-85. Here's why:

(These first eight players are the expected regular starters in projected batting order.)

CF Chris Duffy: Duffy is a good center fielder but I don't think he will be a consistent leadoff hitter in the near future. This is our biggest weakness as a hitting club. Eventually, we'll try someone else at the leadoff spot, without much success. 7 HR, .260 average. His speed is all that allows him to get even that high an average.

SS Jack Wilson: Jack will rebound defensively to deserve the Gold Glove (of course he won't actually get it). He will surprise some with his relative competance at the plate. 8 HR, .280.

2B Freddy Sanchez: Sanchez will start slow coming back from the DL, but will pick it up and will do OK, although of course he won't get near that .344 he got last season. He will be a great 2nd basemen (he's moving over from third because Jose Castillo is lazy). 12 HR, .310.

1B Adam LaRoche: Alright, this is the tricky one. The new guy will continue to improve on his numbers as he has every year. The ballpark is on his side. .290, 40 HR.

LF Jason Bay: Steady, dependable. .280, 38 HR.

C Ronny Paulino: I really like this young catcher. I don't know if he's any good, but I like the guy. .295, 13 HR.

RF Xavier Nady: This guy improved when he came to Pittsburgh last year. (How often does THAT happen?) We actually got the much better end of this deal when we gave the Mets Oliver Perez. .290, 16 HR.

3B Jose Bautista: Earned his job in Spring Training. He'll split a lot of time with Castillo. 15 HR, .240.

Starting pitchers (I will not predict wins, as it is pretty much all luck for a Pirates player to get a win, considering our bad run scoring):

Zach Duke: Will be solid and steady. 3.25 ERA.
Ian Snell: Breakout star. 2.75 ERA.
Paul Maholm: Will hit some rough spots. 4.75 ERA.
Tom Gorzelanny: Eeeeh. Will have some good starts, but will not be a competant major league starter. He'll be replaced at some point. 6.00 ERA.
Tony Armas: Whatever. 4.75 ERA.

Bullpen will be fine. Torres will be a good closer. I like Torres.

McCutchen will be in the Major League by the end of the year.

Once again, 77-85 is the prediction. Although I'd love to see us do better. Really, with these stats, and decent help off the bench, we could reach 81 wins for the first time since 1992. But that would mean that everyone outside of Chris Duffy and a couple pitchers would have to have at least a good season, and LaRoche would need a career season (although I'm fully expecting this anyway).

All the pitchers are gonna get roughed up once and a while. They are very young.

But we'll still finish ahead of the Cubs.